Executive Summary

Blue Bird delivered record Q2 revenue and profit: net sales $358.9M, GAAP diluted EPS $0.79, and Adjusted EBITDA $49.2M (13.7% margin), with 2,295 buses sold; results exceeded company guidance and reaffirmed full-year targets .
Mix/pricing drove revenue +3.7% YoY while gross margin expanded to 19.7%; higher SG&A (notably share-based comp tied to CEO transition) kept GAAP net income flat YoY at $26.0M despite stronger gross profit .
FY25 guidance reaffirmed: revenue $1.4–1.5B, Adj. EBITDA $190–210M (~14%), Adj. FCF $60–80M; quarterly outlook refined (Q3 narrowed to $50–55M Adj. EBITDA; Q4 $45–60M on lower EV build due to tariffs) .
Backlog strong at ~4,900 buses (≈$770M), EV deliveries hit a record 265 units, alt‑power mix remains a competitive moat; management highlighted pricing power and contingency to substitute ICE for EV if tariff headwinds persist .
S&P Global consensus estimates for Q2 2025 and forward quarters were unavailable via our tool; we cannot quantify Street beats/misses and anchor revisions this quarter (see Estimates Context) [GetEstimates – no data].

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Record quarterly revenue ($358.9M) and Adj. EBITDA ($49.2M, 13.7%), with gross margin at 19.7% and a healthy pricing/mix tailwind; CEO: “new all-time quarterly record revenue and profit” .
- Strong demand/backlog: ~4,900 units exiting Q2 (~6+ months of production) and ~1,100 EVs sold or in firm backlog supporting 2025 targets; ASP per bus up ~$4K YoY (~3%) .
- EV execution and product roadmap: record 265 EVs delivered; launched commercial chassis platform (propane and EV) targeting 2026 entry, expanding TAM and strategic optionality .
What Went Wrong
- Tariff headwinds—especially 145% China tariffs—raise EV kit costs (>10% of EV bus value) and may push out some Q4 EV builds; Blue Bird instituted price increases (2% tariff surcharge; +2% general pricing from Apr 1) and may prioritize ICE in Q4 to protect margins .
- Parts revenue down YoY (~$2M) on lower warranty usage as quality improved; quarterly parts held at $26M (flat vs Q1), slightly diluting the strong bus performance .
- SG&A up $9.6M YoY (notably share‑based comp relating to former CEO retirement, and labor costs) offset much of the gross profit increase, keeping GAAP net income flat YoY at $26.0M .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and Non-GAAP (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($M)	$345.9	$350.0	$313.9	$358.9
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.79	—	$0.86	$0.79
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$45.8	$41.3	$45.8	$49.2
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	13.2%	11.8%	14.6%	13.7%
Gross Margin (%)	—	—	—	19.7%

Notes: Q2 2024 Adjusted EBITDA and margin from reconciliation; Q2 2025 gross margin cited by CFO in transcript .

Segment/KPI Detail (Q2 2025 and YoY)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q2 2025	YoY Δ
Bus Revenue ($M)	$318.2 (Revenue – Parts) approximated context; see text	$333.0	+$14.8M
Parts Revenue ($M)	~$28.0	$26.0	−$1.8M
Units Sold	2,254	2,295	+41
EV Units Delivered	210 (implied prior Q2)	265	+55
Alt‑Power Mix (units)	—	57%	—
ICE Mix (units)	—	88%	—
Avg Bus ASP ($/unit)	~$141K	~$145K (+$4K)	+~3%
Backlog (units)	—	~4,900	—
Backlog (revenue)	—	~$770M	—
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($M)	$53.7 (Q2’24)	$18.7	−$35.0 (higher taxes)

Notes: Bus v. Parts YoY deltas per press release; ASP and EV/alt‑power metrics from call .

Estimates vs. Actuals

S&P Global consensus for BLBD (Q2 2025 revenue/EPS/EBITDA and near-term quarters) was unavailable in our tool; we cannot quantify Street beats/misses this quarter. Management stated Q2 results “beat second quarter guidance with record result.” .
Consensus data request returned no values for Q2 2025 and forward quarters [GetEstimates – no data].

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Net Revenue	FY2025	$1.4–1.5B	$1.4–1.5B	Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA	FY2025	$190–210M (midpoint $200M)	$190–210M (midpoint $200M)	Maintained
Adjusted FCF	FY2025	$40–60M (Q4’24 guide; included ~$50M DOE capex)	$60–80M	Raised
EV Units	FY2025	~1,000 (Q4’24 framework)	800–1,000	Lowered range (tariffs)
Adj. EBITDA	Q3 FY2025	$50–60M (Q4’24 guide)	$50–55M (narrowed toward upper)	Refined/narrowed
Adj. EBITDA	Q4 FY2025	$50–60M (Q4’24 guide)	$45–60M (lowered bottom by $5M)	Lowered bottom

Long-term outlook reaffirmed toward 15%+ Adj. EBITDA margin on ~$2B revenue; at Q3 2025, LT margin target raised to 16%+ while announcing a new $100M buyback (post-Q2 event) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q-2 (Q4 2024)	Q-1 (Q1 2025)	Current (Q2 2025)	Trend
Tariffs/macro	No new tariffs; strong pricing cadence (+$3.5K/unit Oct)	—	145% China tariffs inflate EV kit costs (>10%/bus), price actions (+2% tariff, +2% general), may shift Q4 mix to ICE	Deteriorated for EV costs; price actions mitigate
Supply chain	Easing; throughput and lean gains; 14→15% LT margin path	—	Backlog stable; suppliers in US/NA lessen tariff exposure; still fragile at times	Stable/improving ops; targeted mitigations
Product performance	Record FY24; alt‑power leadership; parts margin >50%	Near-record Q1 Adj. EBITDA 14.6% margin; strong ICE profitability	Record Q2 Adj. EBITDA; EV record 265; alt‑power 57% mix; ASP +~3%	Strength sustained; EV ramp despite headwinds
EPA/Regulatory	Rounds 2/3 orders to drive 2H FY25; Round 4 launched	—	Rounds 2/3 “flowing again”; optimism on Round 4; 150 units pending Round 3 funding	Funding execution improving
Pricing/Win rates	Semi-annual pricing cadence; competitive win rates	—	Modest 2% price up + tariff surcharge; competitors acting similarly; win rates intact	Pricing power intact
New platforms	DOE $80M grant for Type D/EV expansion (capacity +)	—	Commercial chassis debut (propane/EV) for 2026 launch; strong interest	Adjacent growth vectors forming

Management Commentary

CEO John Wyskiel: “We achieved record quarterly revenue and profit in Q2 2025… Market demand remains very strong with approximately 4,900 units in our order backlog… We delivered an exceptional 14% Adj. EBITDA margin for Q2 2025.” .
CFO Razvan Radulescu on tariffs/actions: “The 145% tariffs are bringing the imports to a standstill… looking at more than 10% price increase on the total value of an EV bus. Therefore, we decided to prioritize ICE buses in fiscal Q4 and reduce the number of EVs we produce until the tariff situation comes to a resolution.” .
CFO on guidance refinement: “We are increasing slightly our guidance for Q3… and we are lowering the bottom range by $5 million for Q4… confirming our adjusted EBITDA of $200 million… with a narrowed range of $190–$210 million.” .
CEO on product roadmap: “Earlier in March, we debuted our Blue Bird commercial chassis… offered in propane or EV… scheduled to launch in 2026… reaction… was overwhelming.” .

Q&A Highlights

EV pricing/tariffs: Management cut EV prices by ~$25K previously, but tariffs pause further reductions; optimistic for clarity in coming months .
Mix management: If EVs are delayed in Q4, Blue Bird will substitute ICE/propane units into build slots; backlog supports this shift .
Dealer/customer pricing reception: Initial 2% increase accepted; industry-wide tariff pass-through keeps win rates balanced .
Funding cadence: Rounds 2/3 are “flowing,” with pending Round 3 units down to ~150; cautious optimism for Round 4 .
Commercial chassis demand: Early signals favor propane given tariff sentiment; 2026 launch targeted .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates for Q2 2025 and the next three quarters were unavailable in our tool at the time of analysis; therefore, we cannot quantify beat/miss versus Street estimates this quarter. Management framed results as a beat against company guidance and reaffirmed FY targets .
Where estimates are needed for future comparative analysis, we will refresh when S&P Global data becomes available.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution remains strong: Q2 set new revenue and profit records with margin expansion, confirming durable pricing power and operating improvements .
Tariff risk is real but manageable: Blue Bird is flexing price and mix (ICE substitution) to protect earnings while working alternative sourcing; quarterly guide refinement reflects prudent EV pacing .
Backlog/ASP support visibility: ~4,900-unit backlog, ~$770M value, and higher ASP underpin FY25 revenue/EBITDA confidence despite EV timing uncertainty .
Guidance consistency is a signal: Reaffirmed FY25 revenue and EBITDA (midpoint $200M), raised Adj. FCF to $60–80M; quarterly ranges tightened to reflect tariff dynamics .
Strategic optionality: Expansion into commercial chassis (propane/EV) in 2026 and DOE-backed capacity investment expand medium-term earnings power beyond school buses .
Watch catalysts: Tariff policy evolution (EV cost relief upside), EPA Round 4 progress, dealer/customer adoption shifts between EV and propane, and quarterly mix/price execution impacting margins .

Appendix: Additional Data (Q2 2025 detail)

Net sales bridge: Bus sales +$14.8M (units +1.8%, ASP +2.8%), Parts −$1.8M; gross profit +$7.2M offset by SG&A +$9.6M (share-based comp tied to former CEO retirement and labor) keeping GAAP net income flat YoY .
Cash and leverage: Cash $130.7M; LT debt $87.7M; equity $190.4M as of Mar 29, 2025 .
Cash flow: Q2 Adj. FCF $18.7M (YoY −$35M due to higher taxes) .
Non-GAAP reconciliations: Adjusted net income $31.5M; Adjusted diluted EPS $0.96 .

Sources:

Q2 FY2025 8‑K/Press Release and exhibits
Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript and variant
Q1 FY2025 Press Release (prior quarter)
Q4 FY2024 Earnings Call (two quarters prior)
Other relevant Q2 press release (ACT Expo/new platforms)

Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary